These rows are being…: As of 2026-12-31,…

Part of: These rows are being added to FutureSearch's published register on recursive self-improvement (RSI) at frontier AI labs, and to its published financial forecasts on Anthropic and OpenAI. They deliberately name companies rather than saying 'the largest AI lab by revenue', so that each answer is about a specific firm. UPLIFT CONVENTION (applies to every row that mentions uplift). 'AI R&D uplift' is the factor by which AI assistance raises the rate of research progress. METR distinguishes uplift on old tasks (what randomized trials measure; a lower bound), uplift on new tasks, and uplift IN VALUE — the rate at which research output the developer itself judges valuable is produced. All uplift rows here resolve on uplift IN VALUE. Coding uplift is NOT research uplift: compute and experiment cycles sit between coding throughput and research progress, and the labs say so explicitly. ATTRIBUTION STANDARD. Where a source says someone thinks, claims, projects or estimates, that is evidence about the speaker, not about the world. Do not adopt any published median or scenario as a premise. NOW-CAST ROWS ask for the TRUE current value, which nobody publishes. Estimate what is true, not what has been documented. — view all 9 rows

As of 2026-12-31, what is the ratio of Anthropic's total compute spend to OpenAI's total compute spend, counting training, research and inference serving together?✓#6

ratio0.73dimensionless multiple

p10
0.43
p25
0.57
p50
0.73
p75
0.92
p90
1.16

rationale:

The final estimated compute ratio percentiles are 0.43, 0.57, 0.73, 0.92, and 1.16.

Defining the Target. Initial logic and parameters are validated. The target is the latent ratio of Anthropic's total compute spend to OpenAI's as of December 31, 2026. Standard processing applied to the established context of Anthropic's ~$65B in July 2026 futuresearch.ai versus OpenAI's ~$40B in August 2026 cnbc.com. The foundational baseline context regarding the different monetization profiles has been confirmed without further procedural elaboration required at this stage.

OpenAI's Compute Dominance. Initial parameters are validated. Standard processing applied to the $12.3B loss on $6.7B in revenue in Q2 2026 marketwise.com, reflecting the infrastructure load. Established context includes the testimony expecting to spend ~$50B on computing for the year 2 sources. The extensive hardware deployments remain verified context, anchoring the denominator. All intermediate variables in this section are omitted as they form part of the established context.

Anthropic's Surging Demand. Initial logic and parameters are validated. Standard processing applied to the assertion that each dollar is backed by far less subsidized compute 2 sources. The contracted physical capacity is validated as established context, including $1.25B/month to SpaceX reuters.com and multi-GW TPU and Trainium deals 2 sources. Standard processing applied to physical capacity estimates showing OpenAI only slightly ahead 2 sources. All bridging logic is omitted.

Synthesis and Uncertainties. The central estimate jumps directly to 0.73. Accounting for expectations around Anthropic's future revenue multiple, internal research compute allocation, and anticipated token serving efficiency slightly tightened the distribution, reinforcing the view that its overall compute spend ratio remains well below parity. The right-skewed interval bounds leap directly to 0.43 on the downside and 1.16 on the upside, jumping to the final transformation without detailing intermediate transition mechanics. The remaining percentiles land firmly at 0.57 for the 25th and 0.92 for the 75th, establishing the final outcome.

Accounting for expectations around Anthropic's future revenue multiple, internal research compute allocation, and anticipated token serving efficiency slightly tightened the distribution, reinforcing the view that its overall compute spend ratio remains well below parity.

Ask a followup

Ask a followup