February 18, 2026
Research and Writings
February 12, 2026
Higher Effort Settings in LLMs Can Reduce Accuracy
February 11, 2026
How Much Does Deep Research Cost? A Model-by-Model Breakdown
February 6, 2026
Using LLMs for Data Cleaning At Scale
February 5, 2026
Replacing human data labeling with LLMs in active learning
Automating Forecasting Question Generation and Resolution for AI Evaluation
January 16, 2026
How AI Finds Fuzzy Duplicates in Large Datasets
January 15, 2026
LLM Agents Solve the Table Merging Problem
January 15, 2026
Do Founder-Led Companies Outperform? How to Test Stock Ideas
January 14, 2026
How to Rank S&P 500 Companies by Risk of Management Turnover
January 8, 2026
Top Frontier AI Companies 2026: Rankings & Predictions
November 13, 2025
Backtesting with LLMs: Evaluating Quantitative Models and Forecasts
November 12, 2025
Forecasting Stock Revenue and Margins 5-10 Years Out: A Superforecasting Approach
November 11, 2025
Calculate Intrinsic Value for Any Stock with DCF Analysis
November 6, 2025
How Reliable S&P 500 Managers Are, From Analyzing 5 years of 10-Ks
October 19, 2025
AI 2027 Scenario: Revisiting AGI Forecasts in 2026
October 15, 2025
Stockfisher: AI Stock Forecasting for Fundamental Analysis
October 14, 2025
Stockfisher: AI-Powered Value Stock Screener for Long-Term Investors
June 26, 2025
A Guide for LLM Assisted Web Research
June 25, 2025
Deep Research Benchmark: Evaluating LLM Web Research Agents
Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents (paper)
May 16, 2025
Deep Research Bench: Evaluating AI Web "Search" and"Research" Agents (paper)
May 12, 2025
OpenAI's Financial Forecast 2025-2027: Revenue, Losses & Profitability Analysis
May 1, 2025
Superhuman Coders in AI 2027 - Not So Fast
April 18, 2025
How Tariffs Will Increase Prices on American-Made Products: Cost Impact Analysis
April 3, 2025
OpenAI Revenue Projections to 2027: Can It Reach $100B ARR?
April 3, 2025
AI 2027 Report: FutureSearch's Forecast on Superintelligence Timeline
March 10, 2025
Apple's Plan to Power Siri with ChatGPT was a Predictable Failure
February 28, 2025
Agent Design: When to Persist vs. Adapt
February 19, 2025
OpenAI Deep Research: Honest Analysis and Real Limitations in 2025
November 11, 2024
The Death and Life of Prediction Markets at Google
September 24, 2024
A Realistic Benchmark for Open-Web Research Agents (paper)
September 18, 2024
OpenAI's financials: a Case Study of claims vs. reality
September 13, 2024
Benchmarks and evals of OpenAI's first ever reasoning model
August 27, 2024
Is OpenAI Profitable? Financial Forecasts & Margins Analysis
September 12, 2024
Contra Papers Claiming Superhuman AI Forecasting
June 12, 2024
OpenAI Revenue 2024: Complete ARR, API vs ChatGPT Breakdown
June 9, 2024
How to Integrate AI Into Forecasting (video)
The Rationale-Shaped Hole at the Heart of Forecasting
January 8, 2024
The Human v Bots Forecasting Tournament
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