June 18, 2026
Publications
arXiv:2604.26106
Evaluating Strategic Reasoning in Forecasting Agents
April 2026arXiv:2601.22444Automating Forecasting Question Generation and Resolution for AI Evaluation
January 2026arXiv:2506.21558Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents
June 2025arXiv:2506.06287Deep Research Bench: Evaluating AI Web Research Agents
May 2025arXiv:2409.14913Towards a Realistic Long-Term Benchmark for Open-Web Research Agents
September 2024Research Articles
June 18, 2026
How the US vs. Anthropic Standoff on Claude Fable Will End
June 18, 2026
Gemini 3.5 Pro Release Date and Frontier Forecast
June 18, 2026
Meta Conscripted 6,500 Engineers to Make AI Training Data: What Happens Next
May 28, 2026
Anthropic Revenue and Valuation in 2026 Leading to IPO
May 27, 2026
OpenAI Revenue, Losses, and IPO Valuation: Forecasts Through Late 2027
May 27, 2026
Waymo Profitability Forecast: Rides, Margins, and Losses Through 2027
May 3, 2026
Claude can miss the motives of politicians
May 2, 2026
AI takes people at their word
April 30, 2026
Opus 4.6 does better research, Gemini 3.1 has better judgment
April 29, 2026
Do Frontier AI Models Know What They Don't Know?
AI Forecasting Benchmark Dataset: 1,417 Hard Questions (BTF-2)
April 8, 2026
Anthropic IPO Valuation Forecast After the $30B Run Rate Announcement
April 2, 2026
Which AI Researchers Have the Most Valuable Skills?
April 1, 2026
SpaceX IPO Price and Stock Forecast of Reversion to Fundamentals
March 31, 2026
Anthropic and OpenAI IPO Dates and Valuations: Updated Forecasts
February 18, 2026
Reasoning Effort Scaling: Claude 4.6 Gains, GPT-5 and Gemini Don't
February 12, 2026
Higher effort settings in LLMs can reduce accuracy
February 5, 2026
Replacing human data labeling with LLMs in active learning
Evaluating AI Forecasting At Scale
November 13, 2025
Backtesting with LLMs: Evaluating Quantitative Models and Forecasts
November 12, 2025
Forecasting Stock Revenue and Margins 5-10 Years Out: A Superforecasting Approach
November 11, 2025
Calculate Intrinsic Value for Any Stock with DCF Analysis
November 10, 2025
Automating Warren Buffett
November 6, 2025
5-Year 10-K Assessment: How Reliable Are S&P 500 Managers?
November 2, 2025
How to Analyze 10-Q Filings with LLMs
October 29, 2025
How to Analyze Earnings Calls with LLMs: 6 Patterns That Move Forecasts
October 28, 2025
How to Analyze 10-K Filings With LLMs (Without Getting Fooled)
October 28, 2025
How to Summarize Earnings Releases with AI Without Missing What Matters
October 15, 2025
Can AI Forecast Stocks Through Fundamental Analysis?
June 25, 2025
Deep Research Bench Leaderboard: LLM Web Research Agent Rankings
Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents
May 16, 2025
Deep Research Bench: How Well Do AI Research Agents Actually Search the Web?
May 12, 2025
OpenAI Revenue, Losses, and Profitability in 2026: Full Financial Breakdown
April 3, 2025
AI 2027 Report: A Forecast Critique of the Superintelligence Timeline
April 3, 2025
OpenAI Revenue Projections to 2027: Can It Reach $100B ARR?
September 24, 2024
A Realistic Benchmark for Open-Web Research Agents
September 18, 2024
OpenAI's Financials: ChatGPT Subscribers and API Revenue, Estimates vs. Reality
September 13, 2024
How Reasoning Models Compare on Real-World White-Collar Tasks
September 12, 2024
Contra Papers Claiming Superhuman AI Forecasting
August 27, 2024
Is OpenAI Profitable? Financial Forecasts & Margins Analysis
June 12, 2024
OpenAI Revenue 2024: Complete ARR, API vs ChatGPT Breakdown
The Rationale-Shaped Hole at the Heart of Forecasting
Interested in our research?
Stay up to date with our latest findings and methodologies in AI reasoning and forecasting.