Research

Papers

2604.26106Evaluating Strategic Reasoning in Forecasting AgentsTom Liptay · Dan Schwarz +3Apr 20262601.22444Automating Forecasting Question Generation and Resolution for AI EvaluationICLR 2026 Workshop on AI for Mechanism DesignNikos I. Bosse · Peter Mühlbacher +3Jan 20262506.21558Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting AgentsJack Wildman · Nikos I. Bosse +6Jun 20252506.06287Deep Research Bench: Evaluating AI Web Research AgentsNikos I. Bosse · Jon Evans +6May 20252409.14913Towards a Realistic Long-Term Benchmark for Open-Web Research AgentsPeter Mühlbacher · Nikos I. Bosse +1Sep 2024

Our current forecasts

Fire the CEO
liveAug 14, 2026
Anthropic Revenue and Valuation in 2026 Leading to IPO
liveAug 6, 2026follows up on Anthropic IPO Valuation Forecast After the $30B Run Rate Announcement
Anthropic and OpenAI IPO Dates and Valuations: Forecasts and Odds
liveAug 6, 2026
OpenAI Revenue, Losses, and IPO Valuation: Forecasts Through Late 2027
liveJul 13, 2026follows up on OpenAI Revenue, Losses, and Profitability in 2026: Full Financial Breakdown
SpaceX IPO Price and Stock Forecast to 2027
liveAug 6, 2026
Waymo Profitability Forecast: Rides, Margins, and Losses Through 2027
liveAug 6, 2026
The Neolabs Are a Bet Against Superintelligence
liveAug 7, 2026
When Will Safe Superintelligence Release a Model?
liveAug 6, 2026
When Will Reflection AI's Open-Weights Flagship Ship?
liveAug 6, 2026
Forecasting Thinking Machines Lab's Revenue and $50B Round
liveAug 7, 2026
Forecasting AMI Labs, Yann LeCun's Bet Against LLMs
liveAug 7, 2026
How Long Will David Silver's Ineffable Intelligence Stay Dark?
liveAug 8, 2026
Jeff Dean's Discovery Loop Should Automate Chip Design First
liveAug 6, 2026
The Wealth of the Richest People in AI
liveAug 6, 2026
AI 2027 Timelines: Forecasting Time to Superhuman Coders
liveApr 3, 2025
How the Claude Fable Ban Shifts the Anthropic IPO and Valuation Forecast in 2026
liveJul 1, 2026
Top Frontier AI Labs and Models in 2026: Who Is Leading the AI Race
liveJan 8, 2026
Google in the Post-Jeff Dean, Post-Demis Hassabis Era
liveAug 6, 2026
Microsoft's GPQA Diamond Score in 2026: Forecasting a Top Four Lab
liveJun 3, 2026
How the US vs. Anthropic Standoff on Claude Fable Ended
gradedJul 1, 2026
Gemini 3.5 Pro Release Date: Grading a Forecast We Missed
gradedAug 7, 2026
OpenAI's Financials: ChatGPT Subscribers and API Revenue, Estimates vs. Reality
gradedJan 7, 2026grades OpenAI Revenue 2024: Complete ARR, API vs ChatGPT Breakdown
OpenAI Revenue 2024: Complete ARR, API vs ChatGPT Breakdown
gradedJun 12, 2024graded in OpenAI's Financials: ChatGPT Subscribers and API Revenue, Estimates vs. Reality
Is OpenAI Profitable? Our 2024 API Margin Analysis, Graded
gradedAug 7, 2026
Anthropic IPO Valuation Forecast After the $30B Run Rate Announcement
supersededJun 10, 2026superseded by Anthropic and OpenAI IPO Dates and Valuations: Forecasts and Odds
OpenAI Revenue, Losses, and Profitability in 2026: Full Financial Breakdown
supersededJun 11, 2026superseded by OpenAI Revenue, Losses, and IPO Valuation: Forecasts Through Late 2027
OpenAI Revenue Projections to 2027: Can It Reach $100B ARR?
supersededJan 7, 2026superseded by OpenAI Revenue, Losses, and IPO Valuation: Forecasts Through Late 2027

Everything else

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