| Organization | Doubled 2026 allocation | 0%Probability of uptake by end of 2028100% | Delta | World model |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford China Policy Lab New work cited as a basis for action in 2 official government or lab policy documents | $1.44M | +18 | ||
| PIBBSS New outputs used or built on by 2 unaffiliated safety actors | $2.03M | +13 | −2 | |
| Palisade Research New findings cited in 2 US congressional hearings or official government publications | $2.27M | +12 | held | |
| ACS Research New outputs used or built on by 2 unaffiliated safety actors | $1.41M | +12 | −2 | |
| CivAI 2 national legislators, bodies or civil-society organizations join or cite a new campaign | $1.20M | +12 | ||
| Metaculus Forecasts or reports used or cited in 2 official government settings or lab policy documents | $1.50M | +9 | ||
| CLTR New work cited as a basis for action in 2 official government or lab policy documents | $1.13M | +9 | ||
| Center for Humane Technology 2 national legislators, bodies or civil-society organizations join or cite a new campaign | $936k | +9 | ||
| AI Policy Institute New work cited as a basis for action in 2 official government or lab policy documents | $3.27M | +8 | ||
| CAIS Action Fund New work cited as a basis for action in 2 official government or lab policy documents | $1.54M | +8 | ||
| Encode AI Corporation 2 national legislators, bodies or civil-society organizations join or cite a new campaign | $1.03M | +8 | ||
| The Future Society New work cited as a basis for action in 2 official government or lab policy documents | $672k | +8 | ||
| SaferAI New work cited as a basis for action in 2 official government or lab policy documents | $622k | +8 | ||
| Secure AI Project New work cited as a basis for action in 2 official government or lab policy documents | $766k | +7 | ||
| AI Futures Project New materials used or cited in 2 official government settings or lab policy documents | $4.07M | +6 | ||
| RAND (Technology and Security Policy Center) New work cited as a basis for action in 2 official government or lab policy documents | $2.04M | +6 | ||
| Tarbell Center for AI Journalism Supported journalism cited in 2 official government proceedings or publications | $1.57M | +6 | ||
| GovAI New work cited as a basis for action in 2 official government or lab policy documents | $1.51M | +6 | ||
| Simon Institute for Longterm Governance New work cited as a basis for action in 2 official government or lab policy documents | $800k | +6 | ||
| Foundation for American Innovation New work cited as a basis for action in 2 official government or lab policy documents | $1.55M | +5 | ||
| IAPS New work cited as a basis for action in 2 official government or lab policy documents | $1.14M | +5 | ||
| Singapore AI Safety Hub New work cited as a basis for action in 2 official government or lab policy documents | $672k | +5 | ||
| MIRI New outputs cited as a basis for action in 2 official policy documents or legislative records | $3.21M | +4 | held | |
| FAR AI New outputs used or built on by 2 unaffiliated safety actors | $1.84M | +4 | −2 | |
| Oxford Martin AI Governance Initiative New work cited as a basis for action in 2 official government or lab policy documents | $622k | +4 | ||
| CAIS New outputs used or built on by 2 unaffiliated safety actors | $578k | +4 | −2 | |
| MATS 2 scholar outputs built on by unaffiliated safety actors | $578k | +3 | ||
| Timaeus Methods or tools used or extended by 2 unaffiliated safety actors | $552k | +3 | held | |
| METR Evaluations documented as decision inputs by 2 frontier labs or safety institutes | $1.10M | +2 | held | |
| AI Lab Watch New work cited as a basis for action in 2 official government or lab policy documents | $742k | +2 |
Bar: $0 (left) to double the 2025 amount (right); tick: the 2025 amount again. Delta in percentage points. Only work first produced after October 1, 2026 counts. Sorted by delta. World model: how far the consistency pass moved the doubled-allocation forecast, in percentage points — blank where it left the row alone, "held" where it reviewed the row and kept the number; hover for the other branches. Click a bar to open the run.