Appendix
See OpenAI’s path to sufficient revenue for an AI takeoff in 2027 - April 3, 2025
Appendix A: OpenAI Simple Exponential Growth Model
The simple model below estimates current ARR by extrapolating a simple exponential from a few data points that are highlighted in the table with a note highlighting what it is based on.
| Key Metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 194% | |||
| MoM Growth | 9.40% | |||
| Month | Monthly Rev | ARR | Last 12 Months | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2023 | $0.15 | $1.80 | Close to doubling ARR in 6 months, not quite | |
| Dec 2023 | $0.17 | $2.00 | ||
| Jan 2024 | $0.18 | $2.20 | ||
| Feb 2024 | $0.20 | $2.40 | ||
| Mar 2024 | $0.22 | $2.60 | ||
| Apr 2024 | $0.24 | $2.80 | ||
| May 2024 | $0.26 | $3.10 | “OpenAI has more than doubled its annualized revenue to $3.4 billion...” | |
| Jun 2024 | $0.28 | $3.40 | ||
| Jul 2024 | $0.31 | $3.70 | ||
| Aug 2024 | $0.34 | $4.10 | ||
| Sep 2024 | $0.37 | $4.50 | ||
| Oct 2024 | $0.41 | $4.90 | ||
| Nov 2024 | $0.44 | $5.30 | Sarah Friar noted 2024 revenues hit ~$3.7B, up from ~$1B in 2023 | |
| Dec 2024 | $0.49 | $5.80 | $3.73 | |
| Jan 2025 | $0.53 | $6.40 | ||
| Feb 2025 | $0.58 | $7.00 | ||
| Mar 2025 | $0.64 | $7.60 | ||
| Apr 2025 | $0.70 | $8.30 | ||
| May 2025 | $0.76 | $9.10 | ||
| Jun 2025 | $0.83 | $10.00 | ||
| Jul 2025 | $0.91 | $10.90 | ||
| Aug 2025 | $1.00 | $12.00 | 194% | |
| Sep 2025 | $1.09 | $13.10 | ||
| Oct 2025 | $1.19 | $14.30 | ||
| Nov 2025 | $1.30 | $15.70 | CFO Sarah Friar confirmed achieving $11B is “within reach.” | |
| Dec 2025 | $1.43 | $17.10 | $10.96 |
Appendix B: Employment estimates
Customer support representatives in the US according to BLS:
2.95 million x $40k per year = $118 Billion in salaries in the US
Software Engineering in the US according to BLS:
1,656,880 employed x mean annual wage $138,110 = $229 Billion in salaries
R&D researchers in the US according to the census:
4452 employed per million x 340m population of US = 1.51m employed
Average salary for a research and development (R&D) scientist in the United States is between $101,794 and $130,117 per year (from Google).
1.51m R&D researchers x $115k salary = $173 Billion in salaries