Recent Reports

  • OpenAI Revenue Breakdown

    As of June 2024, how much revenue comes from ChatGPT Plus, Teams, Enterprise, and the API, from how many paying users?

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  • Profitability of OpenAI’s API

    What are OpenAI’s margins for the GPT-4o API? How much do they pay for Microsoft GPUs?

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  • Anthropic Investor Breakdown

    As of July 2024, who owns what percent of Anthropic? What percent of shares were sold by FTX to the UAE sovereign wealth fund?

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Research and Writings

Nov 11, 2024 The Death and Life of Prediction Markets at Google
Sep 24, 2024 A Realistic Benchmark for Open-Web Research Agents (paper)
Sep 18, 2024 OpenAI’s financials: a Case Study of claims vs. reality
Sep 13, 2024 How well does OpenAI o1 plan and reason on real-world tasks?
Sep 12, 2024 Contra Papers Claiming Superhuman AI Forecasting
Jun 09, 2024 How to Integrate AI Into Forecasting (video)
Apr 02, 2024 The Rationale-Shaped Hole at the Heart of Forecasting
Jan 08, 2024 The Human v Bots Forecasting Tournament

Free Samples of Our work

  • Chinese EV Market

    How many people in China can afford the cheapest Electric Vehicles?

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  • NYT sues OpenAI on copyright

    Will the lawsuit brought against OpenAI by the New York Times result in OpenAI being allowed to continue using NYT data?

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  • United States bans TikTok

    What will happen to TikTok after Congress passed a bill on April 24, 2024 requiring it to delist or divest its US operations?

    See Forecast
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