April 8, 2026
Publications
arXiv:2601.22444
Automating Forecasting Question Generation and Resolution for AI Evaluation
January 2026arXiv:2506.21558Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents
June 2025arXiv:2506.06287Deep Research Bench: Evaluating AI Web Research Agents
May 2025arXiv:2409.14913Towards a Realistic Long-Term Benchmark for Open-Web Research Agents
September 2024Research Articles
April 2, 2026
Which AI Researchers Have the Most Valuable Skills?
April 1, 2026
A $1.75 Trillion IPO Would Be Overpaying 30% for SpaceX
March 31, 2026
Anthropic and OpenAI IPO timelines and valuations
February 18, 2026
More reasoning tokens helps Claude, but not GPT or Gemini
February 12, 2026
Higher effort settings in LLMs can reduce accuracy
February 5, 2026
Replacing human data labeling with LLMs in active learning
Evaluating AI Forecasting At Scale
November 13, 2025
Backtesting with LLMs: Evaluating Quantitative Models and Forecasts
November 12, 2025
Forecasting Stock Revenue and Margins 5-10 Years Out: A Superforecasting Approach
November 6, 2025
5-Year 10-K Assessment: How Reliable Are S&P 500 Managers?
October 15, 2025
Can AI Forecast Stocks Through Fundamental Analysis?
June 25, 2025
Deep Research Bench Leaderboard: LLM Web Research Agent Rankings
Bench to the Future: A Pastcasting Benchmark for Forecasting Agents
May 16, 2025
Deep Research Bench: How Well Do AI Research Agents Actually Search the Web?
May 12, 2025
OpenAI Revenue, Losses, and Profitability in 2026: Full Financial Breakdown
April 3, 2025
Where the AI 2027 Report Gets It Wrong on Superintelligence Timelines
April 3, 2025
OpenAI Revenue Projections to 2027: Can It Reach $100B ARR?
September 24, 2024
A Realistic Benchmark for Open-Web Research Agents
September 18, 2024
OpenAI's financials: a Case Study of claims vs. reality
September 13, 2024
How Reasoning Models Compare on Real-World White-Collar Tasks
September 12, 2024
Contra Papers Claiming Superhuman AI Forecasting
August 27, 2024
Is OpenAI Profitable? Financial Forecasts & Margins Analysis
June 12, 2024
OpenAI Revenue 2024: Complete ARR, API vs ChatGPT Breakdown
The Rationale-Shaped Hole at the Heart of Forecasting
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