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FutureSearchby futuresearch
by futuresearch

Forecast Anthropic and OpenAI IPO Valuations

Use high-effort numeric forecasts to estimate first-day market caps for the two leading AI labs. Each row asks for a full percentile distribution over a number-with-units, with research backing the estimate.

MetricValue
Rows2
Forecast typenumeric, high effort
Total cost~$2
Time~10 minutes

Add FutureSearch to Claude Code if you haven't already:

claude mcp add futuresearch --scope project --transport http https://mcp.futuresearch.ai/mcp

Then ask Claude:

Forecast the first-day public market cap (in billions USD) for Anthropic and
OpenAI when they IPO. Use a high-effort numeric forecast and return the full
percentile distribution. Anthropic raised \$30B at a \$380B valuation in early
2026; OpenAI raised at \$852B in March 2026. Reason about how the public market
will reprice these private valuations.

Claude calls FutureSearch's forecast MCP tool with two questions, one per company:

Tool: futuresearch_forecast
├─ forecast_type: "numeric"
├─ output_field: "market_cap"
├─ units: "billions USD"
├─ effort_level: "HIGH"
└─ input: 2 rows (Anthropic, OpenAI)

→ Submitted: 2 rows for forecasting.
  Session: https://futuresearch.ai/sessions/...
  Task ID: 7af2...

Tool: futuresearch_progress
├─ task_id: "7af2..."
→ Running: 0/2 complete, 2 running (60s elapsed)

...

Tool: futuresearch_progress
→ Completed: 2/2 (0 failed) in 600s.

Tool: futuresearch_results
├─ task_id: "7af2..."
├─ output_path: "/Users/you/ipo_market_caps.csv"
→ Saved 2 rows with columns: market_cap_p10..p90, units, rationale.

Add the FutureSearch connector if you haven't already. Then ask Claude:

Forecast the first-day public market cap (in billions USD) for Anthropic and OpenAI when they IPO. Use a high-effort numeric forecast and return the full percentile distribution. Anthropic raised $30B at a $380B valuation in early 2026; OpenAI raised at $852B in March 2026.

Results take about 10 minutes.

Go to futuresearch.ai/app and enter:

Forecast the first-day public market cap (in billions USD) for Anthropic and OpenAI when they IPO. Use a high-effort numeric forecast and return the full percentile distribution. Anthropic raised $30B at a $380B valuation in early 2026; OpenAI raised at $852B in March 2026.

Set forecast type to numeric and effort to high.

The SDK's forecast() with forecast_type="numeric" returns p10 through p90 percentiles for the requested field. effort_level="HIGH" increases accuracy at a higher per-row cost.

pip install futuresearch
export FUTURESEARCH_API_KEY=your_key_here  # Get one at futuresearch.ai/app/api-key
import asyncio
import pandas as pd
from futuresearch import create_session
from futuresearch.ops import forecast

valuation_questions = pd.DataFrame([
    {
        "company": "Anthropic",
        "question": "What will Anthropic's first-day public market cap be on its IPO?",
        "resolution_criteria": "First-day closing market cap in billions USD on the day Anthropic lists on a public exchange.",
        "background": "Anthropic raised \$30B at a \$380B valuation in early 2026, on roughly \$19B ARR. Engaged Wilson Sonsini in late 2025; talks with JPMorgan, Goldman, Morgan Stanley.",
    },
    {
        "company": "OpenAI",
        "question": "What will OpenAI's first-day public market cap be on its IPO?",
        "resolution_criteria": "First-day closing market cap in billions USD on the day OpenAI lists on a public exchange.",
        "background": "OpenAI raised at a \$852B valuation in March 2026. CFO Sarah Friar has guided toward a 2027 listing. Recently completed transition to a Public Benefit Corporation.",
    },
])

async def main():
    async with create_session(name="IPO Market Cap Forecasts") as session:
        result = await forecast(
            session=session,
            input=valuation_questions,
            forecast_type="numeric",
            output_field="market_cap",
            units="billions USD",
            effort_level="HIGH",
        )
        return result.data

results = asyncio.run(main())
print(results[["company", "market_cap_p10", "market_cap_p50", "market_cap_p90"]])

Output columns: market_cap_p10 through market_cap_p90 (float, monotonically non-decreasing), units (string), rationale (string).

Results

Anthropic (median $560B, range ~$320B to $873B):

PercentileMarket cap (billions USD)
p10320
p50560
p90873

OpenAI (median ~$1.0T, with significant probability of coming in below the $852B private valuation):

PercentileMarket cap (billions USD)
p10540
p501,000
p901,650

Key takeaways from the rationales:

  • Anthropic's $380B private valuation priced it at roughly 20x $19B ARR. The downside scenario reflects an AI hype-cycle correction; the upside reflects agentic AI and safety positioning pushing ARR well above $25B.
  • OpenAI's wider band relative to its median reflects uncertainty about whether public markets will tolerate the $852B private mark. Demand tracks ChatGPT consumer sentiment more than ads, Sora, or enterprise/Codex revenue.
  • A first-day "pop" above the most recent private valuation is more plausible for Anthropic than for OpenAI, because OpenAI's private mark already reflects aggressive forward expectations.

Update. After Anthropic's $30B run-rate announcement, we re-ran the forecast. The median moved up about 15% to $643B, with the p90 climbing to $1.04T.

Going deeper

  • Source article: Anthropic and OpenAI IPO timelines and valuations
  • Update after the $30B ARR announcement: How the $30B run rate boosted Anthropic's forecasted IPO valuation
  • Companion guide: Turn Claude into a forecaster