Forecast When Anthropic and OpenAI Will IPO
Use FutureSearch's date-mode forecaster to predict when each lab will go public, with calibrated p10 and p90 timing intervals. The forecaster returns a probabilistic distribution per row from recent reporting on banker engagements, S-1 timing norms, and statements from leadership.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Rows processed | 2 |
| Forecast type | date, high effort |
| Total cost | $2.40 |
| Time | ~10 minutes |
Add FutureSearch to Claude Code if you haven't already:
claude mcp add futuresearch --scope project --transport http https://mcp.futuresearch.ai/mcp
Then ask Claude:
Forecast when Anthropic and OpenAI will IPO. Use date-mode forecasting at high
effort. For each company, the resolution criterion is the date of the first day
of public trading on a major US exchange. If you think there's a meaningful
chance they don't IPO within 3 years, the output should reflect that.
Claude calls FutureSearch's forecast MCP tool in date mode:
Tool: futuresearch_forecast
├─ data: [{"company": "Anthropic", "question": "When will Anthropic IPO?", ...},
│ {"company": "OpenAI", "question": "When will OpenAI IPO?", ...}]
├─ forecast_type: "date"
├─ output_field: "ipo_date"
└─ effort_level: "HIGH"
→ Submitted: 2 rows for forecasting.
Session: https://futuresearch.ai/sessions/9c8b4e21-3f7a-4d2c-b1e9-5a4c8f0d2e93
Task ID: 9c8b...
Tool: futuresearch_progress
├─ task_id: "9c8b..."
→ Running: 0/2 complete, 2 running (45s elapsed)
...
Tool: futuresearch_progress
→ Completed: 2/2 (0 failed) in 612s.
Tool: futuresearch_results
├─ task_id: "9c8b..."
├─ output_path: "/Users/you/ipo_forecasts.csv"
→ Saved 2 rows to /Users/you/ipo_forecasts.csv
View the session. See the companion guide for more on date-mode forecasting.
Add the FutureSearch connector if you haven't already. Then ask Claude:
Forecast when Anthropic and OpenAI will IPO. Use date-mode forecasting at high effort. For each, the resolution criterion is the first day of public trading on a major US exchange. If there's a meaningful chance they don't IPO within 3 years, reflect that in the distribution.
Results take about 10 minutes.
Go to futuresearch.ai/app and enter:
Forecast when Anthropic and OpenAI will IPO. Use date-mode forecasting at high effort. For each, the resolution criterion is the first day of public trading on a major US exchange. If there's a meaningful chance they don't IPO within 3 years, reflect that in the distribution.
Date-mode forecasting returns p10/p50/p90 columns as YYYY-MM-DD strings. The literal string "never" may appear when the model assigns meaningful probability to the event not occurring within the resolution window.
pip install futuresearch
export FUTURESEARCH_API_KEY=your_key_here # Get one at futuresearch.ai/app/api-key
import asyncio
import pandas as pd
from futuresearch import create_session
from futuresearch.ops import forecast
questions_df = pd.DataFrame([
{
"company": "Anthropic",
"question": "When will Anthropic IPO?",
"resolution_criteria": (
"The date of Anthropic's first day of public trading on a major US "
"exchange (NYSE or Nasdaq). Resolves 'never' if Anthropic does not "
"IPO within 3 years of the forecast date."
),
},
{
"company": "OpenAI",
"question": "When will OpenAI IPO?",
"resolution_criteria": (
"The date of OpenAI's first day of public trading on a major US "
"exchange (NYSE or Nasdaq). Resolves 'never' if OpenAI does not "
"IPO within 3 years of the forecast date."
),
},
])
async def main():
async with create_session(name="AI Lab IPO Date Forecasts") as session:
result = await forecast(
session=session,
input=questions_df,
forecast_type="date",
output_field="ipo_date",
effort_level="HIGH",
)
return result.data
results = asyncio.run(main())
print(results[["company", "ipo_date_p10", "ipo_date_p50", "ipo_date_p90"]])
Results
Anthropic is forecast to list first, with a median around March 2027. OpenAI lags by about two months, with a median around May 2027. Both labs carry a >10% probability of not IPOing within the 3-year window, captured by "never" in the p90 tail.
| Company | p10 | p50 (median) | p90 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 2026-08-15 | 2027-03-12 | never |
| OpenAI | 2026-11-02 | 2027-05-21 | never |
The forecast reasoning cites Anthropic's late-2025 engagement of Wilson Sonsini and discussions with JPMorgan, Goldman, and Morgan Stanley as evidence of a 2027 listing. Bank engagement to IPO typically takes 6 to 9 months, then underwriters, S-1, then listing. For OpenAI, CFO Sarah Friar has publicly guided toward a 2027 listing, and the recent Public Benefit Corporation transition removes a structural blocker. The fat right tail in both rows reflects a real chance that abundant private capital removes the main motivation to list at all.
Going deeper
- Long-form analysis: Anthropic and OpenAI IPO timelines and valuations
- Companion guide: Turn Claude into a forecaster