Forecast a Binary Question End to End

Binary mode returns a calibrated probability from 0 to 100 that a yes/no question resolves YES, plus a rationale with citations. One question, one row, one call.

The question

Crescent Island is Intel's inference GPU built on LPDDR5X rather than HBM.

Run it

import asyncio

from pandas import DataFrame
from futuresearch.ops import forecast


async def main():
    result = await forecast(
        input=DataFrame([
            {
                "question": (
                    "Will AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, or Oracle announce a deployment "
                    "of Intel's Crescent Island GPU by December 31, 2027?"
                ),
                "resolution_criteria": (
                    "Resolves YES on a public announcement from any of AWS, Azure, "
                    "Google Cloud, or Oracle naming a Crescent Island deployment, on "
                    "or before December 31, 2027."
                ),
                "background": (
                    "Crescent Island is Intel's LPDDR5X-based inference GPU. Intel's "
                    "two prior Gaudi generations won no top-four cloud deployments."
                ),
            },
        ]),
        forecast_type="binary",
        effort_level="HIGH",
    )
    print(result.data[["question", "probability", "rationale"]])


asyncio.run(main())

probability is clamped to the range 3 to 97, so near-certain outcomes keep some residual uncertainty.

Results

The anchor in the rationale is the base rate: zero top-four wins across two Gaudi generations.

What would move the number up:

• Oracle building a budget inference tier on a non-Nvidia accelerator, which it has done for price-sensitive workloads before
• A deep co-engineering partnership announced at re:Invent or the OCP Summit, bypassing the slow validation pipeline
• Independent testing showing unprecedented cost-per-token efficiency
• Intel disclosing strong, independently verified inference economics in late 2026
• Any named cloud co-engineering commitment

Going deeper

• Long-form analysis: Intel Crescent Island: Why No Major Cloud Will Deploy It by 2027
• Published output: the full forecast and its sources
• Guide: Turn Claude into an accurate forecaster