Published forecasts

Any forecast you run can be published to a permanent public URL. These are ours. They are the same output you get from forecast(), the MCP tool, or the app, so they are the fastest way to see what a FutureSearch forecast actually looks like before you run one.

Each page shows the answer, the full rationale, and every source the research agents read. Nothing is redacted except the input data of the person who ran it.

Binary: will it happen?

Binary forecasts return a probability from 0 to 100 and a rationale. See forecast() reference and the Turn Claude into an Accurate Forecaster guide.

Date: when will it happen?

Date forecasts return a p10 through p90 spread of dates rather than a single guess, which is usually the honest answer for timing questions.

Numeric: how much?

Numeric forecasts return percentiles with units. Compare the p10 and p90 to see how much the agents actually know.

Categorical and thresholded: which one, and how far?

Categorical forecasts spread probability across mutually exclusive outcomes. Thresholded forecasts give one probability per threshold on the same underlying quantity. Both are covered in Forecast Categorical and Threshold Questions.

Conditional: what if?

Conditional forecasts run the outcome in the world where a condition holds and the world where it does not, jointly, so the two branches stay coherent. See Forecast Conditional Scenarios.

This set forecasts the same date under three different assumed causes, next to the unconditional forecast, which shows how much the answer hinges on the cause:

Publish your own

Any completed forecast can be published from the app, which gives it a permanent URL, an open graph card, and structured data for search engines. See Publish and Share a Forecast.

The full list of everything we have published is in the app sitemap.