Forecast Conditional Scenarios for OpenAI's IPO

A conditional forecast runs both branches of a scenario in one call. The outcome type stays whatever the question calls for, numeric here, and the condition is a separate parameter. Every output column comes back twice, suffixed _given_condition and _given_not_condition.

The question

Conditional forecasts are HIGH effort only.

Run it

import asyncio

from pandas import DataFrame
from futuresearch.ops import forecast


async def main():
    result = await forecast(
        input=DataFrame([
            {
                "question": "What will OpenAI's market capitalization be 90 days after its IPO?",
                "resolution_criteria": (
                    "Closing market capitalization on the 90th calendar day after "
                    "OpenAI's first day of public trading."
                ),
            },
        ]),
        forecast_type="numeric",
        output_field="market_cap",
        units="trillions USD",
        condition=(
            "OpenAI ships a step-change capability release before its IPO: a model "
            "that leads a majority of major AI benchmarks for four consecutive "
            "weeks after release."
        ),
        effort_level="HIGH",
    )
    print(
        result.data[
            [
                "market_cap_p50_given_condition",
                "market_cap_p50_given_not_condition",
                "rationale",
            ]
        ]
    )


asyncio.run(main())

condition applies one condition to every row. When rows carry distinct conditions, name the column holding them with condition_field instead. The two are mutually exclusive.

Results

The 23% weight comes from a thresholded forecast that prices every step-change date in a single run, read off at the July 2027 median IPO date. The no-step-change median of $800B sits about 6% below OpenAI's last private mark.

When the condition is a choice you control rather than something you observe, use decision instead.

Going deeper

• Long-form analysis: OpenAI Revenue, Losses, and IPO Valuation
• Published output: post-IPO market cap in the step-change case
• Guide: Forecast conditional scenarios